TTP TAKE THE PITCH MLB · PAPER TRIAL
PAPER TRIAL — COLLECTING EVIDENCE

SWING ONLY WHEN THE PRICE IS WRONG.

Not picks. Not locks. One MLB model, on public probation, that takes far more pitches than it swings at — a bet is backed only when the market's price looks wrong. Every signal is timestamped before first pitch and graded against the closing line, losses included. 200 graded signals decide whether it earns real money or gets retired, publicly.

Open the ledger → How it's judged
AVG CLV — THE ONLY STAT THAT MATTERS
—
Starts printing with the first graded signal
SIGNALS GRADED
0/200
VERDICT
COLLECTING EVIDENCE
No verdict until 200 graded

HOW THE TRIAL WORKS

One loop, run nightly, zero human judgment calls in the middle. The rules were committed before signal one and can't be adjusted mid-trial.

Full methodology →
1
Measure the market
Nine legal sportsbooks are polled and the vig is stripped to form a consensus — the smartest freely available estimate of every probability.
2
Run the model
An independent model, fit on tracked historical results and fed only verifiable public data, prices the same markets on its own.
3
Log the disagreements
When model and market disagree by 3%+, it's logged as a paper signal — timestamped, priced at the best available number, zero dollars attached.
4
Grade against the close
Every signal is graded against the box score and — more importantly — the closing line. Beating the close consistently is the only accepted evidence. Winning bets is not; anyone wins bets for a while.
5
The verdict is mechanical
At 200 graded signals: avg CLV above +1.5% and the model earns real stakes. At or below zero, it's retired — publicly. In between, back to the shop, not to the window.

LAST NIGHT'S SIGNALS

Full ledger →
No graded signals yet.
The ledger fills itself in nightly — the first signal lands here the night it's graded.

WHAT THIS IS NOT

Not picks for sale. Not a tout. Not "locks." Nothing here is betting advice — during the trial, nothing here is even a recommendation.

A track record assembled in private is worth exactly what it costs to read: nothing. So this one is assembled in public, with the losses left in.

TTPUPDATED JUL 10 2026 · 14:59 UTC · REGENERATED BY THE PIPELINE
Research publication, not betting advice. Variance dominates short samples. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops feeling like entertainment, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.