The model makes Colton Cowser under 0.5 hit(s) a 66% proposition; the no-vig market consensus says 55%. A 21.3-point gap says the market is mispricing the most ordinary event in baseball. The signal was logged at +120, the best price on the board at signal time. This disagreement was large enough to trigger an automated input audit before being featured; it passed.
A hit prop can die on three well-struck balls hit straight at fielders; batted-ball luck dominates any single night. The closing market will absorb lineups, weather and money this model cannot see. And this market's clock is young: 671 of 200 signals measured against the close, so the model's opinion has not yet earned deference over the market's.
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